Modelling and Forecasting Domestic Tourism. Case Study from Armenia

This paper summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within scientific discussion on issue of modelling forecasting domestic tourism. During Covid-19 many countries tried to develop tourism as an alternative inbound In Armenia has grown recently, in 2020 decrease was 33% compared last year. The main purpose research is model forecast growth Armenia. Systematization literary sources approaches for solving problem indicates that models different variables are used development. Methodological tools methods were static dynamic models, years 2001-2020, quarterly data. presents results empirical analysis, which showed with regression analysis a 1% change GDP will lead 4.43% number tourists, CPI 14.55% tourists. For we 12 competing short-term models. Based recursive rolling simulation concluded out-of-sample forecasts obtained by small-scale outperform large-scale at all horizons. So, tourists’ more appropriate from practical point view. Then, order check whether differences statistically significant applied Diebold-Mariano test. this test there not sufficient evidence favor over means tourist using small scale would be large forecasted values tourists future determined. can useful state bodies, well private organizations, everybody who wants